Turkey

The strategic location of Turkey has long held a pivotal base in the Cold War, with its geographical location between West and Eastern Europe, but historically also, as a gateway to the Middle East and Asia (Noureddine).

The secular state of Turkey provides the largest Muslim population in Europe, in which a virtual single party state exists, and where the official political opposition is branded officially as terrorists.

Change in Turkey has occurred not least due to Globalisation and its gateway position, creating an energy demand of 8% p.a., described as "one of the highest in the world" by the  IEA Turkey 2001 Energy Review.

The Kurdish question THE KURDISH QUESTION IN TURKISH POLITICS and the Cyprus dispute with Greece CIA-The World Factbook-Cyprus remain further evidence of a state in transition, both are difficult and require sensitive handling for the future of world peace.

Effect on Capitalism

Liberalisation of Turkish energy laws has allowed constitutional change by the Electricity Marketing Bill and Petroleum Marketing Bill allowing privatisation to occur. The Russian "Blue Stream" pipeline and the US supported "Trans Caspian pipeline stare at Turkey across the Caspian waters, facing competition, not only from each other, but also from Iraq, Iran and former Russian satellite states of Kazakhstan etc. IEA Turkey 2001 Energy Review.

The controversial Turkish dams projects BBC News/Middle East / Turkish Dam gets UK support threatens to cut off water supplies, from the Tigris and Euphrates, to Iraq and Syria, creating environmental and archealogical harm according to BBC News / EUROPE/ Turkish dam controversy - Shukman and downriver effect to other countries including Iraq and Syria.

Effect on Democracy.

The net result of the above tensions has been a tug-pull for Turkey to join the European Union, which has found favour with the pro EU expansionist Lobby, not least because of the capacity of Turkey to provide a new gateway to Middle Eastern and Russian oil and gas pipeline networks directly into Europe. Unfortunately for Turkey, the Copenhagen Criteria for admission to the EU insists on membership pre-conditions, such as a good Human Rights record, which inhibits Turkey's invitation (Gack 2001).

The Kurdish question is also difficult because of the HADEP party's separatist demands for regional control. The Kurds hand has been strengthened recently by the US' wish to forge an alliance with Kurds in Northern Iraq for the expected push to depose Saddam Hussein from Iraq in 2003.

The bitter dispute with Greece, over Cyprus, remains an issue to be resolved, which the United Nations have been instrumental in starting talks on..

The Turkish executive is suffering from fighting on several fronts at once, on so many and such crucial issues, resulting in mass resignations from the ruling DCP party and ill health of the Premier, Ecevit. A new pro-European Union Entry Party has been formed putting Turkey into further turmoil..

Summary

Turkey has a strategically vital role to play in the geo-political future of the Caspian region. Its location close to Western and Eastern Europe allied with the access to Asia and the Middle east assures itself to be a gateway from the past to the future on several fronts; geographical, political, militarily, culturally alongside development issues of environment and ecology.

Energy demands of 8 % have seen pipelines being built from Russia's " Blue Stream" to the US backed "Trans Caspian" in order to fulfill the Turkish market, alongside the competition expected from Iraq, Iran and Kazakhstan. The infrastructure costs, however, cannot be justified by one country's needs and the EU is already eyeing greedily the prospects of Turkey providing a gateway to Middle Eastern/ Russian oil and gas direct into Europe.

Democratic issues like Human Rights abuses, the Kurdish question and the Cypruse question remain to be resolved before progress can be made towards EU entry, which would support Turkish futures and development into a "first world nation" (Gack 2001).

Conclusions

Turkey is currently fragmenting under the pressure of the current geo-political climate, with mass resignations from its ruling party, a new political party being formed, and the pro Kurdish HADEP party , still at odds with each other.

Economically, Turkey is currently dependent on US aid until it obtains EU ad mission, and that position is likely to remain at least until the stated US policy of deposing Saddam Hussein is completed in early 2003. For comparative indications one needs to look no further than the annexation of Panama from Colombia, when Colombia was too helpless to prevent its loss of sovereignty,following its 1000 day war in 1903 ( Harding 1996).

Russia is likely to support US action in Iraq, despite the proximity of US action so close to Russia's national borders, due to the potential elimination of the Iraqi oil from the competition.

The Kurds are likely to be recompensed for their supporting alliance with the US in deposing Saddam Hussein, with their own regional territory encompassing parts of Northern Iraq and some Turkish lands for a future secure Kurdistan. The current movement towards flooding Kurdish villages, as a consequence of the Turkish dams projects, could be an indicator of compulsory resettlement by the Turkish state.

The EU will also take advantage of the situation, to install an oil pipeline via Turkey for the entire European Union, and will likely fudge the Copenhagen Criteria on the human rights issues.The Turko Greek pipeline is a hand shaking protocol in which the Cyprus question will ultimately be resolved, with Greek dependence on Turkish-supplied oil.

Copyright S Coleman 2002 30 July 2002

Flag used with permission: http://www.theodora.com/flags